Oil Market Outlook: Is a Recession Priced In?

With 4 charts

As we discussed in the latest Note: Oil Market Outlook: What Have We Learned from H1 2024?, global demand growth doesn’t support a bullish case for oil.  The following are the conclusions from that Note:   

1. Unlike in the past, projections of growth in global oil demand are not converging.

2. Since COVID-19, the differences in estimates of past global oil demand remain large.   

3. The differences in estimates in growth in global oil demand in Q1 are exceptionally large.

4. Oil trade data do not support the bullish case. We have already seen it in the market in recent weeks.