World Oil Production in 2023: Canada and Norway Failed to Deliver!

Aside from Russia’s production, the biggest surprises were on the downside, not the upside (With 15 Charts).

Estimates of growth in global oil production vary from one organization to another, but a few things are clear:

1. Non-OPEC production increased as OPEC reduced its production.

2. The decline in Russia’s production was far less than all forecasts.

3. Oil production hit a record high in several countries including the US, Canada, and Brazil.

4. Some increases in oil production in 2023 came from nations that claim to be the leaders of the war on climate change: The US, Canada, and Norway!  

5. The biggest surprise on the oil production side came from Mexico as shown in the report below.  Canada and Norway did not deliver the expected growth in oil production.

6. While the increase in US oil production was expected by some, including us, production exceeded expectations. 

7. The downward pressure on oil prices in 2023 came mostly from the demand side. The role of production increases was limited.  Growth in demand was lower than expected.

8. We overestimated the production of Norway and underestimated the production of Brazil but got the rest spot on or very close, especially that of Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan. Although our prediction of US production was highest, actual liquids production was higher.

What went wrong? What went right?

• Figure (1) below is taken from our EOA 2023 Oil Market Outlook, which was posted in Early January, 2023.

  Figure (1)