While the Writing was on the Wall, the Retreat is Larger and Faster than Expected!
The headlines below tell the whole story and what to expect in terms of higher oil demand than current forecasts. While sales of EVs in general are up, the growth is way lower than expected. There are positive news for EVs around the world, but what matters is that oil market outlooks assume larger penetration of electric vehicles than what we see on the ground. The retreat is everywhere, larger and faster than our expectations. Peak in global oil demand is fantasy!
New York Times: More Gas Cars and Trucks, Fewer E.V.s as Automakers Change Plans
Summary
“But in the past 12 months, the growth rate of electric vehicle sales has slowed sharply as some car buyers have balked at the high prices of electric cars and trucks and the hassles of charging them, especially on long trips.
The shift in consumer sentiment is now forcing many automakers to pull back on aggressive investment plans, and pivot, at least partly, back to the internal-combustion engine vehicles that still account for most new car sales and a large share of corporate profits.”
Reuters: Ford pivots from EV plans to heavy-duty trucks at Canada facility
Summary
“Ford Motor (F.N), opens new tab on Thursday outlined plans to use a Canadian plant it had earmarked for a future electric vehicle to instead build larger, gasoline-powered versions of its flagship F-Series pickup truck.”
Quartz: GM's electric vehicle goals are in doubt after CEO Mary Barra's comments
Summary
“We’re seeing a bit of a slowdown right now. We won’t get to a million just because the market is not developing, but it will get there,” Barra said Monday at a CNBC event. “We’re going to be guided by the customer.”
Inside EVs: Hyundai Motor Group's Global EV Sales Slowed Down In H1 2024
Summary
“Hyundai EV sales decreased by 30% in the first half of 2024”
Reuters: Volvo Cars blames EU tariffs as it cuts 2024 sales forecast
Summary
“Volvo Cars (VOLCARb.ST), opens new tab cut its full-year retail sales forecast on Thursday, blaming European tariffs on EVs made in China that will hit one of the Swedish automaker's key electric models until it shifts production to Belgium.”
Los Angeles Times: Statewide EV sales growth sees a drop. Tesla, once a California darling, hit hard
Summary
“After years of rapid expansion, electric vehicles sales growth in California trended down in the middle of last year and now has turned negative: 101,443 all-electric cars were registered in the state in 2024’s second quarter, down from 102,730 in the second quarter of 2023, a drop of 1.2%.”
Reuters: EU new car sales rise 4.3% in June, but EV sales down
Summary
“New car sales in the European Union rose 4.3% in June to their highest since July 2019, driven by an uptick in major markets Italy, Germany, and Spain, while registrations of battery electric cars fell marginally”
Reuters: Global EV sales up 13% in June, down 7% in Europe, Rho Motion says
Summary
“Global sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles rose by 13% in June versus the same month in 2023 driven by growth in China, while they dropped in Europe, market research firm Rho Motion said.”
Reuters: Tesla's California car registrations fall for third straight quarter
Summary
“Registrations of Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab cars in California fell 24% in the April to June period, marking the third consecutive quarter that the company posted a sales drop in its key market, indicating mounting challenges for the EV maker, according to industry data on Thursday.”
AXIOS: Why gas-powered vehicles aren't going away yet
Summary
“The EV revolution has slowed in 2024 amid lingering concerns about prices and charging availability”
Insurance Journal: California Needs a Million EV Charging Stations — But That’s ‘Unlikely’ and ‘Unrealistic’
Summary
“A million public chargers are needed in California by the end of 2030, according to the state’s projections — almost 10 times more than the number available to drivers in December”
“It is very unlikely that we will hit our goals, and to be completely frank, the EV goals are a noble aspiration, but unrealistic,” said Stanford professor Bruce Cain, who co-authored a policy briefing detailing California’s electric vehicle charging problems. “This is a wakeup call that we address potential institutional and policy obstacles more seriously before we commit blindly.”
On the Political Side
Business Insider: JD Vance thinks EVs are a scam. Elon Musk seems to be fine with it.
Summary
“Vance said his anti-EV stance stems from what he sees as hypocrisy in the charging and manufacturing of the vehicles. While the US doesn't import many EVs directly from China, the country does dominate the supply chain for batteries and the critical minerals inside them. Back in the US, cars are also charged up on a mostly dirty power grid, Vance added, saying, "The whole EV thing is a scam."
Vance has also criticized President Joe Biden's tax incentives to encourage more Americans to buy EVs and introduced his own tax credit for gas- and diesel-powered vehicles manufactured in the US.”
Quartz: Trump's running mate J.D. Vance wants tax rebates for gas cars instead of EVs
Summary
“A proposed "Drive American Act" would give $7,500 incentives to fossil fuel-powered cars and trucks”
Bloomberg: Trump Pledges to End the 'Green New Scam'
Summary
“Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump vows to end support for electric vehicles and "bring auto jobs back to our country" through the proper use of taxes, tariffs, and incentives, while not allowing auto manufacturing plants to be built in Mexico, China, or other countries. He pledged to redirect money from the "green new scam," referring to Biden's policies to fund renewable energy projects, to infrastructure projects like bridges and dams.”