What Happens if We Lose All of Libya’s Crude Oil Exports?

Bloomberg: Libya Rival Government to Stop All Oil Output Amid Bank Row

Reuters: Libya's eastern-based government to close all oilfields

Oil prices increased by about 2.5% and Brent is above $80 on the news.

Figure (1) shows Libya’s crude exports since the beginning of 2022 by destination. Most of the Libyan crude is exported to European refineries. Italy has been the main customer for decades. 

Attaqa reported a week days ago that Haftar and the head of the of the House of Representatives threatened to close ALL the oil fields to put pressure on the Presidential Council and the government of Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dabaiba. They want to retract the dismissal of the governor of Libyan Central Bank and change the way oil revenues are divided. Oil exports have been halted in the past, sometimes for an extended period. Our readers are familiar with the events that led to the closure of certain fields. 

We wrote a week ago in the Daily Energy report that “The threat of losing some or all Libyan crude exports is real.”. Now the decision to clos eteh fields is made!

We focus on exports because they matter to the rest of the world, not production. Hence, what is the impact on global oil markets if all Libyan oil exports are halted?

EOA’s Main Takeaways