Dear Readers,
Below are our main takeaways from the EIA report, along with 13 updated charts.
MAIN TAKEAWAY
The EIA reported today a small draw in crude inventories and products, while exports declined markedly. By historical standards, current crude oil inventories and expected oil demand justify lower oil prices, but we believe that the massive SPR releases last year, and the decision to sell another 26 million barrels (mb) in 2023 have ended this correlation because we are currently in the range where a lower SPR justifies higher commercial inventories. In other words, the SPR and commercial inventories are substitutes. Lower SPR necessitates an increase in commercial oil inventories.
IN DETAIL
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported another decline in commercial crude oil inventories by 1.7 million barrels (mb) to 478.5 mb.
The EIA also reported a decrease in gasoline inventories by 1.1 mb to 238.1 mb. Distillate inventories, meanwhile, increased by 100,000 mb to 122.3 mb. Tables (1) and (2) below sum up the changes.
Table (1)
Key Oil Inventory Data and Refinery Crude Inputs (all mb/d except SPR in mb)
Source: EIA, 2023 and EOA, 2023
Table (2)
US Crude Oil Imports and Exports, and Petroleum Products Demand (mb/d)
Source: EIA, 2023 and EOA, 2023
IN CHARTS
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