Weekly Oil Data

Inventories, Exports, Imports, and Refinery Utilization

MAIN TAKEAWAY

• There has been another release of 1.0 mb from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of the 26 mb congressionally mandated sales for this year. It appears that all the remaining releases have already been priced in. 

• Gasoline and distillates inventories declined to critical levels.

• The decline in prices earlier, followed by the announcement of a crude inventory draw by more than expected, along with gasoline and distillate draws, are bullish, but prices will remain range bound: $79-$89 for Brent.

• The US SPR draws will stop by the end of June.  Voluntary output cuts by large OPEC+ producers, meanwhile, will go into effect in early May and continue until the end of 2023.  When OPEC+ meets in June, will producers make the voluntary cuts formal?

IN DETAIL