March 26, 2025
EOA’s Main Takeaway
Changes in inventories followed historical trends. Given planned refinery maintenance and announced closures, we are concerned that low distillate inventories might raise diesel prices, even if oil prices do not rise. Currently, distillate inventories are near the bottom of the 5-year range.
Cushing inventories are below the 5-year range for this time of year, but as discussed previously, Cushing lost relevance years ago when pipelines were built directly from West Texas to what was then the Gulf of Mexico, now the Gulf of America.
The rise in oil prices above $74 for Brent today is mainly due to the halt of some Venezuelan crude exports, caused by confusion and uncertainty from Trump’s tariff. Meanwhile, China is re-arranging shipments to prevent its oil majors from directly buying Venezuelan oil.
IN DETAIL
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Energy Outlook Advisors' Newsletter to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.