US Weekly Oil Data & OPEC’s Production

US Inventories, Exports, Imports, Refinery Utilization, and OPEC’s Production (13 Charts).

May 14, 2025

EOA’s Main Takeaway

We've warned about declining distillate inventories for weeks. Last week, they hit 103.6 million barrels, the lowest since early May 2008 when oil prices neared record highs (See Figure 5).

Cushing inventories dropped, staying below the 5-year range (Figure 11). They're not a concern yet but could be if Canadian imports decline.

Oil prices dipped slightly today but have risen since OPEC+ decided to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. Contrary to predictions of oil prices falling to the $40s, the limited impact of the cut and positive tariff news shifted market sentiment.

OPEC released its monthly oil report earlier today. OPEC lowered its 2025 forecast for oil supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers to 800 kb/d, down from 900 kb/d, citing expected declines in capital spending due to falling oil prices. The slowdown could help OPEC+ stabilize the market. Brent crude recently dropped to its lowest since 2021, settling near $60. OPEC anticipates a 5% drop in non-OPEC+ exploration and production investment in 2025, despite a $3 billion rise in 2024. US output remains a key driver. Global demand forecasts remain unchanged. OPEC+ production declined by 106 kb/d in April, mainly due to Kazakhstan, which has struggled to meet its quotas.

Our readers and listeners first learned that OPEC and OPEC+ supply declined in April, about 10 days ago, when we published a note after the OPEC+ V8 decision to raise the production ceiling by 411 kb/d in June. We stated that despite the planned increase, actual supply is decreasing. This is now confirmed: OPEC production fell by 62 kb/d to 26.710 mb/d (See Figure 12). Production from the 10 non-OPEC OPEC+ members dropped by 45 kb/d. Overall, OPEC+ production decreased by 106 kb/d to 40.916 mb/d.