US Weekly Oil Data

US Inventories, Exports, Imports, and Refinery Utilization (11 Charts).

MAIN TAKEAWAYS

The increase in gasoline and distillate inventories toward the end of the year and the beginning of the year is common as shown in Figures (4) and (5) below. What we have seen in the last two weeks matches historical trends directionally, but the magnitude is larger.  Should we be concerned about the larger than usual increases, or ignore them?

Source: Noda Midstream, LLC.

Data shows that what we have seen in the last two weeks happened only 4 times on record for this time of the year (The record starts in 1990). Therefore, one would questions if it is tax related.

Here is the problem: It happened four times when oil prices were declining in early 1990, early 2015, early 2020, and early 2022! Looking at numbers throughout the year, such a large build in consecutive weeks happened in March 2020 when oil prices were declining. In all cases the market crashed except in 2022 because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (In other words, we have 5 instances among 1780 weeks). 

Therefore, we should be concerned until strong evidence show otherwise.

IN DETAIL