EOA’s Main Takeaway
The changes in crude and products inventories followed historical trends. Looking at inventory levels in the US and around the world, they support of view of “sideways” movement. There is nothing bullish, but it is also not bearish. Cushing inventories declined to below the 5-year average and below 2014 levels.
While some people might view crude inventories, especially Cushing, as bullish, we look at it as a return to normalcy as we get rid of the overhang from the build that we had during COVID lockdowns that affected the 5-year range average.
One argument can be made is that the lack of build in commercial inventories is related to the substitution between them and the SPR. In other words, the relatively low level of commercial inventories is not bullish given the increase in the SPR. As indicated in the Chart above, the government added 45.7 mb to the SPR as of last week.
IN DETAIL
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