MAIN TAKEAWAYS
We told our readers a few weeks ago that any draws would be tied to US crude exports. Now we see it: exports increased while imports were virtually flat. Demand remains muted and change in refinery utilization is small. Hence, future draws are tied to maintaining a high level of exports. Higher refinery utilization will also help reduce crude inventories. We do not believe that the current decline in inventories is related to decline in US shale production.
While crude and gasoline inventories followed historical trends (see Figure 4, for example), distillates did not.
IN DETAIL
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