June 18, 2025
New interview on the war with Iran:
https://x.com/anasalhajji/status/1935495039230017836
or:
EOA’s Main Takeaway
Though crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories align with historical trends, the crude inventory drop was notable, approaching the lower end of the 5-year range. This was the largest weekly decline in a year and exceeded most analysts' expectations.
If crude inventories keep falling over the next 4 weeks, they'll hit a bullish level. Distillate and Cushing inventories stay below the 5-year average.
The significant increase in exports (Figure 10), decline in imports (Figure 9), and strong refinery utilization (Figure 7) explain the large drop in crude inventories, but their time frames differ, as exports and imports may reflect data from the previous week. This indicates that weekly data contains considerable noise.
Despite the significant crude draw, oil futures extended losses after rising about 5% teh day before when President Trump hinted that the US might join the war in Iran. However, losses were smaller than the prior increase, transferring the net gain from political premium to fundamental increase.
IN DETAIL
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