US Weekly Oil Data

US Inventories, Exports, Imports, and Refinery Utilization (12 Charts).

EOA’s Main Takeaway

While crude, gasoline and distillate inventories followed historical trends, one thing is clear: the change in crude is less than in the past and change in gasoline and distillate is way stronger than in the past. Crude inventories are not only lower than the 5-year average by about 6%, but they are even lower than the bottom of the 5-year range. While the low level of crude sounds bullish, gasoline level is bearish, and distillate level is neutral. Total demand is virtually flat relative to that of last year with large increases in demand for distillate and jet fuel, flat gasoline demand and decline in others.

Cushing inventories decline to their lowest level since October 2014. They are way below the bottom of the 5-year range as shown in Figure (11). While this might look bullish, we have been there before several times. A side from the fact that Cushing lost its significance in oil pricing, rebuilding inventories is only a matter of time.

Global inventories have also declined, especially in China and India. However, looking at global commercial inventories, they are slightly below the 5-year average. (see chart here)

We maintain our view of “sideways” or “neutral” for 2025 with Brent prices in the $70s. We will upgrade our view to bullish (above $80/b) if the green shoots in China indicate an early Spring.

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