US Weekly Oil Data
US Inventories, Exports, Imports, and Refinery Utilization (11 Charts).
MAIN TAKEAWAYS
The decline in crude inventories is mainly the result of Hurricane Francine. The importance of this inventory draw is that it is counter to historical trends and lower than the bottom of the 5-year average, as shown in Figure (1) below. If the decline continues in the next two weeks, we will see higher WTI prices. The decline in gasoline inventories comes after the surprise and large increase the week before. However, even when talking about distillate inventories, we must be careful with EIA data during periods of Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.
Unless we see a meaningful increase in production, crude exports are expected to remain low, and imports are expected to increase.
Finally, this is just a reminder that we need to see crude inventories declining toward the 400 mb mark to change our view from neutral to bullish. Do not be fooled by inventories being close to the bottom of the 5-year range.