Update: The Group of 8 Increased Production Ceiling by 137 kb/d In October

The OPEC+ group of eight decided to unwind the 1.6 mb/d voluntary cut, as expected in our report three days ago. We now have clarity on the timeline and rationale. The impact was discussed earlier (copy below). They will begin with 137 kb/d in October and meet on October 5 to set November production levels. Aramco’s OSP, due in hours, will indicate the decision’s bearish or bullish nature.

Here is a copy of the Press Release: https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/243573-07-september-2025.html

Oil Market/OPEC+ Update: Sentiment & Narratives vs. Reality

This note explains why the oil market may not be as bearish. Oil bears overlook key points, and their perception misaligns with reality. We also analyze the impact of unwinding the 1.6 mb/d cuts and the potential gap between actual market balances and sentiment, particularly in the short term.

Sentiment will shift as reality sinks in, though it will take time. Stronger negative sentiment could lead to a faster oil price rebound.