Trump’s Tariffs and Venezuela’s Oil Exports: The Impact and the Unintended Consequences

With three charts

Observers predicted a policy shift toward Venezuela months before the US elections if President Trump won a second term. After making his decisions public, surprises included terminating Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela and imposing tariffs on countries importing Venezuelan oil. On February 26, President Trump announced the termination of Chevron’s license, effective March 1, 2025, later extended to May 27, 2025, reversing President Biden’s decision from November 26, 2022, to lower oil prices. The decision stemmed from delays in accepting deported Venezuelan migrants and Maduro’s failure to meet democratic conditions after the July 2024 elections. Chevron, with PDVSA, produced 240 kbd.

On March 24, President Trump issued an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on imports from countries buying Venezuelan oil, effective April 2, 2025. These "secondary tariffs" target buyers like China, Spain, and India. On March 29, the Trump Administration canceled foreign companies’ exemptions from sanctions to export Venezuelan oil, previously granted by Biden to replace Russian oil and supply US refineries.

Figure (1) shows trends in Venezuelan crude oil exports by destination:

Here are the concise facts from the chart: