The Outlook for the EU’s Gas Market: More Pain to Come!
President Trump's policies are one of the main factor affecting gas market balances in Europe in 2025 (with 8 charts)
The current tight gas market in Europe and high gas prices should not surprise our readers. We predicted this last February. However, additional factors in 2025 are expected to make European gas markets more volatile: the halt of Russian gas exports to Europe via Ukraine, President Trump's election in the US, and the possibility of ending the war in Ukraine. The retreat from climate goals and Trump's push for more LNG sales in Europe are also factors. As European energy policies continue to fail, we expect higher prices and volatility. Competition with Asia makes the situation worse.
Source: Maran Gas, 2024.
In 2024, the EU's gas market was characterized by:
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