The Hype of Oil on Water
Analysts and journalists overlooked several facts. The amount of oil on water is smaller, and the impact on the oil market is significantly exaggerated. (With 7 charts and two maps)
October 21, 2025
This Note exposes the hype by some analysts and journalists about the significant increase in crude exports and oil on water in recent weeks, particularly in September. They claim the volume is excessive, will significantly raise inventories, and lower oil prices. Oil on water in this Note refers to oil in transit on ships, excluding floating storage (tankers stopped at port for over seven days without unloading).
Global crude exports, especially from OPEC+, rose in September, as did oil on water (see Figure 1). Per Kpler’s data, global crude exports increased by 3.443 mb/d month-on-month to 45.401 mb/d. Oil in transit rose by 178.861 mb month-on-month to 1,179.044 mb. The key point is that crude exports surged, significantly increasing oil on water. However, analysts and journalists overstated the impact of such increases for four reasons: they ignored recent shipping sanctions, the destination of Saudi exports, changes in Iranian shipping, and details of Brazilian exports. Ironically, they also ignored the fact that this increase in oil exports and oil on water increases oil demand by about 45 kb/d, according to our estimates.
