EU LNG Imports Drop to Lowest Level in Seven Months but Remains Dependent on Russian Gas!

We expect higher gas prices in Europe and Asia (with 6 Charts)

To assess the success of European efforts to shift away from Russian gas, the EOA issues a monthly tracker of the EU’s gas imports through pipelines from Russia, Azerbaijan, Norway, and North Africa (Algeria and Libya), as well as LNG cargoes from global players like the US, Qatar, and Nigeria. The tracker aims to highlight changes in the EU’s imported gas supplies and the extent of reducing dependency on Russia.

Exactly as we predicted in previous reports, the European benchmark for gas prices, TTF, climbed 6.3% in July reaching $11.38 per mmbtu by the end of the month amid concerns over gas supply disruptions as tensions grow in the Middle East. Europe’s gas storage levels were historically high reaching 85.12% on July 31, lower by one point percentage than the same period last year, but more than 14 percentage points higher than the past three-year average (Figure 1). Meanwhile, the Asian market was more attractive for spot LNG cargoes as the price differential (JKM-TTF) was in favor of JKM, increasing to $1.97 per mmbtu in July compared with $1.44 per mmbtu in the previous month.

Gazprom’s Exports to Europe

Total gas shipments from Russian energy giant Gazprom to Europe (EU and Ukraine) via current operational routes, increased by 15.7% month-on-month in July and by 6.1% year-on-year for the seventh month in a row since the beginning of 2024. Exports to Europe notably increased to 2,728 million cubic meters (mcm) in July, up from 2,570 mcm during the same month last year (Figure 2), based on the EOA’s calculations and data from the European gas transmission platform (ENTSOG).