Strong Chinese LNG Demand Would Raise Gas Prices and Make Europe More Dependent on Coal and Russian Gas

Since the beginning of this year, China has seen a strong recovery in natural gas demand, benefiting from low spot LNG prices. The country has noticeably increased its monthly LNG imports compared to the same period last year, according to data from the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC). Chinese LNG demand is expected to continue growing as new LNG terminals are due to come onstream in the upcoming months.

In January, China received 7.25 million tons of LNG, an uptick of 22.7% year-on-year. LNG imports later increased in February by 14.2% year-on-year, to 5.95 million tons, while in March volumes rose by 24.1% year-on-year to 6.65 million tons.  As industrial LNG demand kept recovering, China increased its LNG imports in April by 30.4% year-on-year to 6.22 million tons, but down 6.4% month-on-month.

Overall, China imported a total of 26.07 million tons of LNG in the first four months of 2024, up 23.47% over the same period last year, according to the GACC data, and our calculations. Last year, China imported 71.84 million tons of LNG, up 13% year-on-year, overtaking Japan as the world’s largest LNG importer, as shown in Figure (1) below. 

China’s First LNG Terminal In 2024