Saudi Oil Exports to US, EU, and Asia, EU March Gas Imports, and 2023 Oil Market Outlook Amid OPEC Cuts

Does OPEC need to increase production in Q4?

In Today’s Issue:

• Saudi Oil Exports to US, EU, and Asian Markets (4 Charts)

• March Monthly Gas Supply Mix in the EU (3 Charts)

• 2023 Oil Market Outlook (1 Table, 3 Charts)

MAIN TAKEAWAYS

1. Saudi crude exports to the US plunged to 137,000 b/d in March amid a unit shutdown at the Motiva refinery.  

2. Saudi oil exports to China are projected to grow stronger despite competition from discounted Russian barrels.

3. During the first three months of 2023, Saudi oil exports to India averaged 782,000 b/d, a drop of 13% from the average during the same period last year. However, the drop is not unprecedented.

4. Saudi oil product exports to the Netherlands, France, and Belgium sharply rose during the first three months of this year compared to 2022.

5. About 17% of total EU gas imports (piped and LNG) in March came from Russia, a sign that Europe will need Russian gas next winter.

6. Absence of any recession, OPEC has no choice but to increase production in Q42023.  Otherwise, oil prices will climb above $100/b.   

Years of Change: Saudi Oil Exports to US, EU, and Asian Markets