Russia’s Oil Exports: A short Note

There is nothing bullish about Russian oil for now (With 6 charts and two maps)

Media stories about Russia’s oil industry gives the impression that Russian oil companies are having serious problems producing and exporting their crude and refined products.  But exports data do not support such stories.  Russian oil is flowing through the Red Sea without any problems despite the attack on a tanker carrying Russian oil owned by a Russian company.  Other attacks were on tankers carrying Russian oil but NOT owned by Russian companies.  Yesterday, there were 12 tankers passing through the Suez Canal going south, all carrying Russian oil.  Russian exports of petroleum products have not declined despite the Ukraine’s drone attacks on refineries and storage facilities.  We remind our readers that a decline in Russia’s processing capacity because of drone attacks means higher crude exports!   It is clear that exports of gasoline and gasoil/diesel have declined, but it seems that Russia was able to increase the exports of other products.

India is importing large quantities of Russian oil as indicated in Figures (5) and (6) below.  Russian crude prices are way above the price cap and Urals is traded around $75/b. (the price cap by the G7/EU is set at $60/b)