Russia - India Energy Ties in 2025: The Most Complete Picture You Can Use
Moscow and New Delhi both say payment bottlenecks have been resolved, with most trade now clearing via rupee–rouble arrangements
Guest Post by: Velina Tchakarova, Geopolitical Strategist (on X: Velina Tchakarova )
Executive Summary
India has settled into a thin-discount equilibrium on Russian energy. Moscow is signaling steady crude flows into India at an approximate 5% discount versus alternatives—an official line justified by the claim that New Delhi has “virtually no alternative sources” at comparable netbacks.
After a brief, policy-driven, pause in July and early August, India’s state-owned refiners resumed purchases for September–October once Urals differentials widened to roughly $3 per barrel. China quickly absorbed cargoes during India’s pause, underscoring Beijing’s role as the regional swing buyer and limiting New Delhi’s bargaining power.
A bespoke rupee–rouble payments architecture—described by Moscow as resolving prior frictions and now used for the vast majority of bilateral transactions—reduces dollar exposure and keeps cargoes moving despite escalating Western pressure, including a new additional 25% U.S. tariff on Indian imports tied to Russian oil purchases.
In parallel, Russia is expanding the basket beyond crude to oil products, power and coking coal, and prospective LNG, while India’s upstream equity in Russia (Vankor, Imperial Energy, continued participation in Sakhalin-1) hard-wires a longer horizon of interdependence.