Redefining Energy Routes: Russia's Pivot to China amidst Geopolitical Shifts

Up to two-thirds of the gas volumes traditionally destined for Europe could be redirected towards China. Such a shift comes with Strategic and political implications.

Guest Post by Velina Tchakarova, Geopolitical Strategist

Originally written for Attaqa.net. Posted with permission

The onset of the New Year heralds promising opportunities for bilateral trade between Russia and China in the oil and gas sector – a topic extensively covered by Attaqa. The following analysis puts the focus on the key pivotal ally of Russia amidst ongoing Western sanction: China.

Following the Western sanctions, China and India emerged as the two key buyers of Russian oil. Recent statements by Nikolai Tokarev, President of Transneft, revealed that Russia's oil exports to India surged to 70 million tons in 2023, while shipments to China increased to more than 100 million tons. Alexander Shokhin, President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, projects that, should the current trajectory persist, Russian oil exports to India could surpass 100 million tons annually by 2030.

By the close of 2023, there was a marked increase in the volume of key energy resource supplies from Russia to China. Oil, coal, pipeline gas, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) emerged as primary catalysts for the surge in trade between the two nations, which, by the end of December, swelled by 26.3 percent to an unprecedented $240.11 billion. This expansion underscores the deepening energy partnership and strategic cooperation between Russia and China, reflecting their mutual commitment to bolstering economic ties and energy security amidst shifting global dynamics.