OPEC+, V8 Meetings & The Oil Market: A Short Note
Where is the oil? Oil exports fell in April with no significant rise in May!
Today's OPEC+ meeting is irrelevant to the oil market this summer. No decision on July's output will be made today; the V8 will decide on Saturday. Here are our expectations and their impact on the oil market:
The eight OPEC+ members (The V8) who agreed to voluntary cuts began unwinding them in April. They decided to expedite the unwinding in May and June, likely extending to July. That will bring the increase in production ceiling close to 1.4 mb/d.
The group chooses to meet and announce decisions on Saturday when markets are closed to avoid knee-jerk reactions, giving traders a day to assess the impact while OPEC+ officials manage market messaging.
The impact of these increases is limited for these reasons:
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Energy Outlook Advisors' Newsletter to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.