OPEC+ and the Oil Market: An Update

• OPEC crude oil production declined last month according to data from the OPEC Monthly Oil Report that was released yesterday.  We expect OPEC production to rise markedly in October as we explain below.

• OPEC revised down its estimates for growth in global oil demand in 2024 and 2025 exactly as we expected.  We expect further downward revisions in the coming months as we explain below.

• There were discrepancies between the official production numbers submitted by some governments to OPEC Secretariat and production estimates by independent monitoring companies.  We also explain that below. 

• An increase in production may not mean an increase in exports.  A decrease in production may not mean a decrease in exports as explained below. 

Crude Production and Exports