Oil Market Update: The Production Increase by the V8 is Less Bearish Than Analysts Suggest, As They Overlooked Seasonal Oil Demand in Oil-Producing Countries.

Al Khairat Thermal Power Plant in Iraq. Source: Harlow Group, 2025.

Our Saturday Note “What Do Saudi Arabia & Allies in OPEC+ Want from Accelerating the Unwinding of Voluntary Cuts?” concluded that the increased production ceiling has limited impact, but bearish sentiment will delay market realization. Oil prices fell 4.5% initially, recovering to a smaller decline by day's end. Asian markets on Tuesday show Brent up by 1.5%, supporting our contrarian view despite bearish reports.

In today’s short Note, we add one more bullish factor with a chart. We also discuss oil market bearshness and “Conformity Theory.”