Oil Market Outlook and China’s LNG Demand

EIA Surprise: US oil demand in 2050 is only 2.1% lower than in 2022!

In Today’s Issue:

• 2023 Oil Market Outlook (Table)

• EIA Long-Term Oil Market Outlook: Overview and Comments (4 charts)

• China’s LNG Demand (4 charts)

MAIN TAKEAWAYS

1. The oil market outlook for 2023 has not significantly changed since January despite China’s reopening. The recent banking crisis will cast its shadow on the oil market and will lower oil prices in the event of a financial crisis and a recession. China’s data remain relatively weak.

2. A striking prediction from the EIA in its Annual Energy Outlook is that by 2050, US petroleum demand would decline in the base case by only 2.1% relative to demand in 2022, despite the billions of dollars in subsidies directed at alternative energy and electric vehicles.

3. Despite high decline rates in the tight oil plays, US crude oil production in 2050 would be higher than output in 2022, according to the EIA.

4. Competition between China and Europe for LNG is expected to intensify in the summer, leading to higher prices. Europe may encounter challenges to secure enough LNG supplies.

2023 Oil Market Outlook