Oil Market Outlook 2023-2024: An Update

Non-OPEC production upward revision, and the IEA’S questionable OECD demand growth estimates (With 4 charts)

MAIN TAKEAWAYS

• While we remain bullish on oil, China will cap oil prices.

• Global oil demand in 2024 will break this year’s record.

• The wide gap between the estimated “call on OPEC” and actual OPEC production remains a concern.

• Non-OPEC oil production has been revised up as companies respond to higher oil prices.

• Demand growth estimates for 2023 by the IEA and OPEC remain optimistic.

• The IEA’s estimates for oil demand growth in the OECD in 2024 are too pessimistic.