Oil in 2026: Narrative vs. Reality – Why the Market Is So Confused
Main Drivers: Trump and China! (With 10 charts)
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One of the major problems now is that 2025 is nearing its end, yet forecasts for demand and market balances differ widely. Thus, 2026 forecasts not only have their own variances but also inherit the discrepancies from 2025, creating greater confusion among market participants and investors. Historically, large forecast differences at the start of the year converged by year-end. That is not happening now. As previously stated, we will never know actual global demand; we can only use various tools to assess which forecast is more credible. Regardless, the IEA has an 18-year record of underestimating oil demand, according to the IEA itself, President Trump will remain the main source of volatility in the oil market with China and OPEC+ remaining the main driver of market fundamentals.