No Glut in Sight: Why Oil Bears Remain Mistaken—Despite OPEC+ V8 Easing the Taps in April
Recent gains in oil prices stem mainly from sharp production drops in the United States and Mexico, triggered by harsh winter weather. This year’s disruptions have proven more severe than in past winters. Geopolitical tensions, including speculation about a potential strike on Iran, added upward pressure late last week. Although markets braced for action over the weekend, so far, no attack occurred. An explosion at an apartment building in southern Iran was later attributed to a gas leak, not sabotage.
The OPEC+ V8 (the core group of eight producers implementing voluntary cuts) paused the unwind of those cuts through the first quarter of 2026, a decision. Their virtual meeting tomorrow, Sunday, focuses solely on March production levels—no major policy shifts are anticipated.