Mexican Independence Day vs. Energy Dependence!

What are the ramifications of ending Mexico’s crude oil exports or Mexico becoming a net oil importer? (With 10 charts)

Questions

1. What are the ramifications of ending Mexico’s crude oil exports?

2. What are the consequences of Mexico becoming a net oil importer?

3. What is the impact of increased dependence on US natural gas while US LNG exports are booming?

4. How can Mexico be self-sufficient in gasoline and other petroleum products while some of its crude is not suitable to produce large quantities of gasoline?

5. How can Mexico meet future energy demand with dwindling oil and gas reserves and without new nuclear power plants, while meeting its climate goals?

Every year, on September 16, Mexicans celebrate Mexico’s independence from Spain in 1810.  We would like to take this opportunity to congratulate our Mexican friends and colleagues and present a brief overview of the energy landscape in Mexico in 10 Charts, with a focus on oil and gas.

When it comes to energy, Mexico is at a pivotal point in its history as it celebrates its independence:  Soon its crude exports are planned to be halted, and natural gas imports will continue to increase, while its oil and gas reserves are dwindling.  This comes on the heels of a series of explosions and fires at various refineries and oil facilities.

Energy demand is expected to continue to increase as more people move to the cities (urbanization) while the population is expected to increase by about 29 million people to about 157 million people by 2050.  (This is based on a population of 128.455 million people in 2023 and a net increase in population of 0.75% per year). As urbanization increases, without any additions to oil and gas reserves and nuclear power generation, Mexico will become more dependent on foreign oil and gas than ever.

Oil and Gas Reserves

As figures (1) and (2) below show, oil and gas reserves have declined significantly in the last 20 years.  Although the decline has been halted in recent years because of private investment, the amount left will not produce enough to support the government budget and domestic demand. Dependence on imports, especially natural gas, is expected to increase.  Even if the US does not deliver enough in the future, Mexico can still import large quantities of LNG from various countries.

Oil Production, Consumption, Exports, and Imports