Inventories Before and During the Storm: A Reliable Predictor of… Nothing
US Inventories, Exports, Imports, and Refinery Utilization (12 Charts).
January 28, 2025
The amount of oil locked up in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) since the start of 2025 has exceeded the growth in U.S. crude oil production over the same period.
This matters because it serves as key evidence challenging the narrative of a genuine global oil surplus. Much of the reported inventory build isn’t freely available commercial crude poised to flood the market and depress prices—it’s tied up in strategic government stockpiles, deliberately set aside for emergency use rather than active trading or immediate supply response.