India’s Oil Market and Concerns about Russian Fuels in European Markets, Turkish Elections and Energy Markets, TTF Prices amid Muted Gas Demand, and Global Energy Investment

In Today’s Issue:

• India’s Oil Market and Europe’s Concerns about Fuels from Russian Crude (5 Charts)

• Turkish Elections and Energy Markets

• TTF Prices at Two-Year Low amid Muted Demand, Economic Recession in Germany (4 Charts)

• Green Investment is Concentrated, and Cost is Increasing, with implications for oil and gas markets (3 Charts)

MAIN TAKEAWAYS:

1. Any drop in the share of OPEC producers in the Indian oil market needs to be looked at in the context of the latest production cuts which the oil group implemented at the beginning of May.

2. Data shows some changes in the flow of oil products from India to a few European countries, mainly Albania, Romania, France, Germany, and the Netherlands, following Europe’s ban on Russian oil products.

3. Erdogan’s win in Turkey’s elections is important for Moscow amid Western sanctions. Russia has secured an ally it’s been using as a channel for its sanctioned oil cargoes. If Erdogan had not won the runoff presidential vote, this would have increased volatility in the energy markets.

4. On May 26, the Dutch wholesale natural gas price (TTF) for the month ahead fell to 24.90 euros per MWh during the morning session, which was the lowest level since May 2021.

5. Recovery in China’s LNG demand, in addition to potential heat waves in summer and maintenance activities at several LNG plants, could help raise prices.

6. Despite promises of declining costs of renewables and electric vehicles, the IEA’s latest World Energy Investment 2023 report shows that costs are in fact rising.

7. Investment in green transition is highly concentrated, the IEA’s report shows, which will affect efforts seeking global solutions for climate change.

8. The green transition will not materialize without continuous and massive investments from governments that could reach trillions of dollars.

9. The gap in investment in oil and gas can be solved or mitigated. The key issue, however, is the failure of some green policies, which by default will increase demand for natural gas, oil, and coal, which no market outlook, except ours, has taken into consideration.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian leader Narendra Modi in a strategic embrace. Source: Asia Times

India’s Oil Market and Europe’s Concerns about Fuels from Russian Crude