How large is the surplus in the oil Market in Q4?

The claim that oil prices would have dropped significantly without Chinese inventory builds and will drop once they stop is inaccurate (with 5 charts)

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The bearishness since last April was unwarranted. Predictions of oil prices dropping to the $30s and $40s due to OPEC+’s unwinding voluntary production cuts were wrong. Talks about peak oil demand have been delayed. We noted in prior post that the bearish sentiment and forecasts of record oil surplus in 2026 were based on fabricated supply and demand estimates. Besides exaggerating non-OPEC production and underestimating US demand growth, oil bears highlight China’s rising oil inventories, claiming prices would be lower without this build-up and will fall when China stops. Those emphasizing China’s inventories must address the puzzle in Figure 1: