Future of Gabon’s Ambitious Gas/LNG Plans following Military Coup

The military coup delays LNG plans and increases political risk (With a table and three charts)

Related Report: The Impact of the Military Coup in Gabon on the Oil Markets

Last week, a group of military officers in oil-producing Gabon announced they had seized power, placing President Ali Bongo, whose family had been in power for over 50 years, under house arrest. This came after the results of presidential elections showed that Bongo had won a third term, according to media reports. As they dissolved state institutions, the military officers appointed their leader General Brice Oligui Nguema as interim president, bringing the Bongo family’s rule to an end.

Gabon’s military coup has caught the attention of the energy community given that it’s a crude oil producer and exporter. In 1975, Gabon became a full member of OPEC before ending its membership in 1995. It re-joined the oil group in the summer of 2016. The central African state is a small oil producer, with production standing at 210,000 barrels per day (b/d) as of July, according to a recent survey by S&P Global Commodity.

Despite its low production, some buyers, especially Israel, rely on Gabon’s crude, and they’re likely to feel the impact if output is shut. Kpler’s data shows that during the first eight months of this year, Israel imported an average of around 40,000 b/d of crude from Gabon, mainly Rabi, Dussafu, and Rabi Light grades, compared to 15,000 b/d during the same period last year.  The shift took place after the loss of oil imports from Kurdistan after the pipeline through Turkey was shut down as we discussed in this report:  The Impact of the Military Coup in Gabon on the Oil Markets that we published more than a month ago.

Upstream Gas Sector in Gabon