Four Oil Charts You Must SEE

The law of unintended consequences is at work!

MAIN TAKEAWAYS

• The US lost its oil market share in India to Russia

• Any decline in Russian oil exports will be limited

• China’s oil inventories are higher than those of the US

• China will use its SPR when needed

• About 62% of US oil imports are from Canada & around 12% from the Middle East. If oil flows from Canada are disrupted for a prolonged period, Middle Eastern oil will fill the gap.

IN DETAIL

1- India’s Oil Imports

Figure (1) compares India’s 2021 average oil imports by source to that of 2022 (first 11 months). One of the ironies is that India increased its oil imports from Russia mainly at the expense of the market shares of the US, and Nigeria.  Meanwhile, imports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf States increased!  There was no competition between Gulf States and Russia in the Indian market! 

Although data from the last two months indicates that while imports from the Gulf region declined, imports from Russia increased, the drop in Gulf imports was due to the OPEC+ oil cut.

Figure (1)