Four-Fold Increase in OPEC+ V8 Production Ceiling in August. What is the Impact?

With three charts

The OPEC+ group of eight, the V8, which made voluntary cuts and began unwinding them in April, met virtually today and decided to raise the production ceiling by 548 kb/d in August, four times the initial increase planned last December. This exceeded market expectations, including ours, of 411 kb/d.

Here is an excerpt from the press release

“In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, and in accordance with the decision agreed upon on 5 December 2024 to start a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary adjustments starting from 1 April 2025, the eight participating countries will implement a production adjustment of 548 thousand barrels per day in August 2025 from July 2025 required production level. This is equivalent to four monthly increments as detailed in the table below. The gradual increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability.”

Link to press release:

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirm commitment to market stability on current healthy oil market fundamentals and steady global economic outlook and adjust production

The Impact