EU's Gas Import Mix: Will It Change Once the War in Ukraine Ends?

Record-High LNG Imports in April with Another Record from the US (with six charts)

May 12, 2025

EU LNG imports hit a record high in April, with US imports also at record high as Russia's share declined. US shipments to the EU increased in recent months as they were diverted from Asia to Europe due to favorable price differentials. Consequently, China imported no US LNG, while Asian companies profited from diverting carriers to Europe. Now the situation changed as prices are more favorable in Asia and some carriers are being diverted from Europe to Asia. The report below tracks all EU gas imports in April and outlines the major changes relative to the past.

The end of the Ukraine war is expected to change Europe’s energy mix, with more Russian gas imported via pipeline and LNG.

However, avoiding Trump’s tariffs may require buying more US LNG and oil, likely at the expense of coal and renewables, given Europe’s slow economic growth.

EU energy policies have failed, merely shifting dependence from Russia to Norway and the US. Norway faces labor strikes, and the US is prone to hurricanes and political volatility (tariffs and trade wars for example, or political reaction to higher natural gas prices at home). The trade war between the Trump admisntration and the EU will force the EU either relax some of its climate policies regarding methane rules or give an exemption to US LNG. Both are problematic with some unintended consequences.

Regardless, Europe remains vulnerable to energy crises and will remain reliant on Russian gas.