EU’s Gas Import Mix: TTF Prices Surged and Expected to Go Higher

To assess the success of European efforts to shift away from Russian gas, EOA issues a monthly tracker of EU’s gas imports through pipelines from Russia, Azerbaijan, Norway, and North Africa (Algeria and Libya), as well as LNG cargoes from global players like the US, Qatar, and Nigeria. The tracker aims to highlight changes in the EU’s imported gas supplies and the extent of reducing dependency on Russia.

The European benchmark for gas prices, TTF, was up by 10.3% in August, reaching $12.89 per million British thermal units (mmbtu) by the end of the month amid concerns about gas supplies through Ukraine and Azerbaijan. Europe’s gas storage levels, meanwhile, were historically high, reaching 92.44% on August 31, lower by half point percentage than the same period last year, but more than 12 percentage points higher than the past three-year average (Figure 1). Turning to the Asian market, it was more attractive for spot LNG cargoes as the price differential (JKM-TTF) was in favor of JKM by a price differential of $1 per mmbtu on average.

Gazprom’s Exports to Europe