EU's Gas Import Mix: Gazprom Gas Shipments Hit a New Record Low, but Trump's Tariffs Might Increase Them Again

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The TTF, the European benchmark for gas prices, had strong gains in January with a 12.5% increase, reaching $16.2 per mmbtu by month-end. TTF price gains were driven by the halt of Gazprom supplies through Ukraine after the expiry of the 5-Year transit deal between Russia and Ukraine and cold weather conditions. As a result, gas inventories declined at the highest pace seen in recent years. Gas stockpile levels dropped to 53.59% of capacity by January 1, compared to 70.17% in 2023 and 72.10% in 2022 as shown in Figure (1).