Europe’s Gas Problem: Is it over?

Europe will suffer from gas shortages and high gas prices, it is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when. (with 6 charts)

To assess the success of European efforts to shift away from Russian gas, the EOA issues a monthly tracker of the EU’s gas imports through pipelines from Russia, Azerbaijan, Norway, and North Africa (Algeria and Libya), as well as LNG cargoes from global players like the US, Qatar, and Nigeria. The tracker aims to highlight changes in the EU’s imported gas supplies and the extent of reducing dependency on Russia.

Mild weather, ample natural gas imports and healthy gas stockpiles kept European natural gas prices in check in March.  The EU did exit the winter with gas storage at record levels: 3% higher than the previous month and 21% higher than the average of the past three years.  Prices were low enough in Europe to the extent that LNG cargoes were diverted to Asia where spot prices fetched a dollar higher than the spot price in Europe.

Gas shipments from the Russian energy giant Gazprom to Europe (EU and Ukraine) increased by 11.9% month-on-month in March and jumped 25.8% year-on-year.   Gazprom shipped 2,655 million cubic meters (mcm) to Europe, up from 2,110 mcm in the same month last year as shown in Figure (1).

Gazprom shipped 1,292 mcm of gas via Ukraine through the Sudja gas station on the Russia-Ukraine borders. Ukraine used 83 mcm and the remaining volume of 1,209 mcm was shipped to EU member states.