Europe’s Gas Balancing Act: LNG Shortfalls, Rising Russian Flows, and the Race to Refill Storage

Avoiding an Energy Crunch Requires Sustained High LNG Inflows, Favorable Weather in Europe and Asia, and a Mild Gulf of America/Mexico Hurricane Season (With 7 Charts)

European gas storage sits at just 40.1% — the lowest late-May level since 2021. Despite Norway/Algeria support and US LNG dominance (58% share), persistent Hormuz disruptions and Asian competition keep TTF elevated and volatile. Summer risks (heatwaves, hurricanes, spot reliance) point to upside price volatility and a strongly bullish outlook for US LNG exporters.

As of 31 May 2026, European gas storage levels have risen to approximately 40.1% of total capacity, up from 32.7% at the end of April. However, Europe continues to face challenges in refilling its underground facilities ahead of the coming winter. Despite the monthly increase, this is the lowest late-May storage level recorded since 2021, with inventories remaining well below the five-year average, as illustrated in Figure 1. The slow pace of injections is primarily driven by persistently low LNG inflows, caused by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and shipping disruptions impacting flows through the Strait of Hormuz (SOH).