EU Dependence on Russian Gas to Continue

Despite high gas storage levels (With 6 charts)

To assess the success of European efforts to shift away from Russian gas, the EOA issues a monthly tracker of the EU’s gas imports through pipelines from Russia, Azerbaijan, Norway, and North Africa (Algeria and Libya), as well as LNG cargoes from global players like the US, Qatar, and Nigeria. The tracker aims to highlight changes in the EU’s imported gas supplies and the extent of reducing dependency on Russia.

In April, the European benchmark for gas prices TTF was up 5.7%, reaching $9.1 per mmbtu by the end of the month. The increase was driven by geopolitical tension in the Middle East, a decline in feed gas to US LNG plants, and maintenance work at Norwegian gas fields. Amid these developments, gas storage levels in the EU remained historically high at 62.3%, or 2.5 percentage points higher year-on-year and 21 percentage points higher than the past three-year average, as shown in Figure (1) below. Asia became more attractive for spot LNG cargoes as the price differential (JKM-TTF) was in favor of JKM, averaging $1.2 per mmbtu in April.

Gazprom’s Shipments to Europe