Debunking the Oil Myth: Trump’s Venezuela Policy and the Quest for Strategic Dominance

Pundits often assert that President Trump’s actions toward Venezuela are primarily driven by U.S. oil interests, particularly the need for heavy crude oil. They point out that the U.S. imports around 6.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude, with a significant portion being heavy crude—over 60% of which comes from Canada. Amid trade disputes with Canada, which has diversified its exports through the TransMountain Pipeline (now enabling direct shipments to Asia form a Western port) and discussions of a second pipeline, these analysts argue that the U.S. is eyeing Venezuela’s vast heavy crude reserves as a replacement. Some even went farther and talked about the objective of breaking OPEC+ by increasing Venezuelan oil production significantly. Such claims overlook key facts that contradict this narrative: