Cutting off "arms" and clipping "claws"... Iran's preferred scenario

Summary

Any US-Iran agreement would initially push oil prices lower due to market sentiment, but prices would then rise because Iran would be unable to meaningfully increase its production. Even over the medium term, any production gains would remain limited. This stems from insufficient investment in the sector and the constrained capacity of oil service companies, which would already be stretched thin across Venezuela, Iran, and likely Russia as well.

What impact will a potential US attack on Iran have on energy markets? And what impact will an agreement have?

We have discussed the impact of a US attack on Iran in previous articles, and the topic has been extensively covered in global and local media. However, discussion of the impact of reaching an agreement remains limited, if it exists at all.

The significant U.S. military escalation—featuring two aircraft carrier strike groups (including the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea and the USS Gerald R. Ford transiting toward the region via the Mediterranean), numerous destroyers and support vessels in the Strait of Hormuz vicinity, the Gulf, Red Sea, and eastern Mediterranean, plus additional fighter jets and assets repositioned in the Middle East and potentially supported from bases like Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean—points toward the possibility of an imminent strike on Iran.

This buildup, described as one of the largest U.S. force concentrations in the region since 2003, has unfolded amid stalled nuclear negotiations and heightened tensions, even though multiple predictions of an attack over the past two weeks have not materialized. Even casual observers can outline multiple plausible conflict scenarios and their economic fallout, particularly on global oil markets. These range widely depending on variables such as: