China and the Oil Market: It is not that Bullish!

Declining refinery runs and exports and rising inventories are a headache for oil bulls (with 7 charts)

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Greetings from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.  I am sharing with you some charts before some media outlets post misleading headlines about Chinese oil demand and oil imports.  Recent data shows an increase in China’s crude oil imports.  Usually, such an increase is viewed as bullish.  Once we look at the big picture, it is not that bullish!  China’s refinery runs and oil exports were declining while oil inventories were rising! However, the good news is that domestic demand has not weakened.  The bad news is that the demand growth is not as strong as many have hoped.

Figure (1) shows China’s weekly crude oil imports by source.