Energy Outlook Advisors' Newsletter

Energy Outlook Advisors' Newsletter

Brazil Shatters Crude Export Records in October: A Short Note

Exports to China are also at record high, increasing oil on water (with three charts)

Anas Alhajji's avatar
Anas Alhajji
Nov 14, 2025
∙ Paid

Brazil’s oil production rose to a record high, driving crude exports to a record high in October, as shown in Figure 1. This increase exerts downward pressure on prices, but as seen in September, large surges often lead to sharp declines, supporting prices and boosting volatility. Below we debunk two stories: the bearish impact of increasing oil on water and the claim that sanctions forced Brazil to reduce diesel imports from Russia while increasing imports from the US to mend relations with President Trump.

The Impact of “Oil on Water” Is Exaggerated!

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