Be Careful: Don’t Fall for the US-Iran Deal Hype — Brent Drops Below $100
Source: Kpler, 2026
The News:
Oil prices slumped sharply amid growing optimism over a potential end to the US-Iran conflict.
Reports from Axios indicated the US believes it is close to securing a one-page framework memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran to end hostilities. This would include lifting restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. The US expects Iranian responses on key points within 48 hours, marking the closest the parties have come to an agreement. Iran has signaled willingness for a “fair and comprehensive” deal, and both sides have outlined a path for further nuclear negotiations.
Brent crude fell more than 13% at one point. (or over $6–7), briefly dipping below $100 to around $98 before settling near two-week lows. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped similarly, losing up to 7.7% to about $95.50. These moves followed a 4% decline the previous session and represent some of the largest daily drops since mid-April. The declines reflect expectations of resumed tanker traffic, easing supply disruptions that had driven prices to highs not seen since 2022. Out comments in this short Note are listed below.