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The Great Surplus Myth Takes a Massive Hit – OPEC+ Supply Set to DROP in January
Jan 19, 2026
Today is Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the United States, a federal holiday honoring the legacy of Dr. King.
U.S. financial markets are closed in observance.We typically don’t publish reports on holidays, but we wanted to make an exception and share this short Note with you today.
We anticipate a meaningful decline in OPEC+ supplies starting in January — a significant development that directly challenges the prevailing narrative of a large, sustained global oil surplus. Here’s a clear view of the recent monthly trends in OPEC+ exports, including our forecast for January:
